Interview with Liu Yiyang of the China photovoltaic industry association: space photovoltaic technology is still in the early stages of exploration and verification.

Where will China's photovoltaic industry go in 2026?

The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration recently announced that, starting April 1, 2026, export tax rebates for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. On one hand, there's policy adjustment; on the other hand, the "space photovoltaic" concept is gaining traction, with ongoing debate about its prospects and potential for a bubble. China's photovoltaic industry is standing at a crossroads of multiple variables.

During the "Photovoltaic Industry 2025 Development Review and 2026 Outlook Seminar" organized by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association on February 4-5, a reporter from 21st Century Business Herald interviewed Liu Yiyang, Executive Secretary-General of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, regarding related issues.

In 2026, the photovoltaic industry will see a glimmer of hope on the supply side, while demand will accelerate, and competition will enter a more advanced stage. "Under the current circumstances, combating 'involution' remains the main path for the standardized governance of the photovoltaic industry. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association will actively fulfill its functions, promote self-regulation in accordance with laws and regulations, and resolutely eliminate 'involutionary' competition in the industry by jointly promoting the photovoltaic industry back to a path of healthy competition and rational development through market-oriented and rule-of-law means," said Liu Yiyang.

21st Century Business Herald: How do you evaluate the development trend of the photovoltaic industry in 2025? What are your assessments and prospects for 2026?

Liu Yiyang: The photovoltaic industry did indeed undergo profound restructuring and deep adjustments in 2025, shifting from a "price war" to "value reconstruction." But I believe the difficult period will eventually pass.

Regarding industry expectations for 2026, there are several points of divergence within the industry, mainly concerning global installation demand, including in the Chinese market. Firstly, the end of the rush to install triggered by "Document No. 136" and the marketization of electricity prices will affect domestic installation demand. The expected decline in installed capacity is twofold. First, global growth remains uncertain, with a slight decrease or flattening of new installed capacity projected for 2026. However, some argue that strong growth in emerging markets like the Middle East and India will keep global demand high. Second, with national policies and the combined efforts of the entire industry, a consensus must be reached on how to promote the gradual recovery of the industry chain.

However, it's important to clarify that regardless of changes in total installed capacity, the industry's main development trajectory remains clear, and competition will always revolve around "cost per kilowatt-hour" and "revenue over the entire lifecycle." Product quality, technological advancement, and integrated photovoltaic-energy storage solutions are core competitive advantages, while solving the intermittency problem of photovoltaics and improving project profitability is fundamental. In short, the photovoltaic industry underwent profound transformation in 2025. In 2026, I believe the photovoltaic industry will see a glimmer of hope on the supply side and accelerate its shift on the demand side, with competition entering a higher level.

21st Century Business Herald: In building a healthy market order, what aspects should the photovoltaic industry focus on in 2026? What specific measures will the association introduce?

Liu Yiyang: Under the current circumstances, combating "involution" remains the main path for the standardized governance of the photovoltaic industry. Market-oriented and rule-of-law methods will be used to jointly promote the photovoltaic industry back to a path of healthy competition and rational development. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association will actively fulfill its functions, promote self-regulation in accordance with laws and regulations, and resolutely break down "involutionary" competition in the industry by adopting innovative methods and comprehensively utilizing various means.

Our ultimate goal is to establish a healthy ecosystem of "high quality, high price," making the Chinese photovoltaic industry a mainstay of my country's new energy system and maintaining global leadership. Of course, achieving high-quality development requires continued efforts from all parties; future competition will not be simply about scale. It's not about price competition, but a comprehensive contest of technology, quality, brand, and global operational capabilities.

21st Century Business Herald: Starting April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be abolished. What impact will this have in the short and long term? How will it force the industry to accelerate its transformation? How do you predict the overall trend of the photovoltaic export market in 2026?

Liu Yiyang: Since 2024, my country's photovoltaic products have faced increasingly fierce competition in overseas markets, with export prices continuing to decline, showing a trend of "increased volume but decreased price." Some companies, in the export process, not only engage in low-price competition but also convert export tax rebates into bargaining power with foreign companies. This not only causes profit losses for domestic enterprises but also significantly increases the risk of my country's photovoltaic industry suffering from international trade frictions such as anti-subsidy and anti-dumping measures, negatively impacting the overall interests and international image of China's photovoltaic industry.

The timely abolition of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products will help promote a rational return of prices in foreign markets and facilitate a more rational and efficient allocation of fiscal resources. In the long term, it will help curb the excessively rapid decline in export prices and reduce the probability of trade frictions.

From an overall trend perspective, with the decline in export costs… Firstly, exports are likely to show a trend of initial increase followed by a decrease. It is anticipated that overseas end-user companies will rapidly increase order demand during the window of opportunity before the formal implementation of the export tax rebate cancellation, leading to a rapid increase in product exports in the first quarter of 2026. With the cancellation of export tax rebates and the stockpiling in the first quarter, market demand is expected to decline significantly starting in the second quarter. However, leading companies, with their advantages in technology, scale, brand, and channels, are more resilient.

Secondly, industry consolidation will be accelerated, and industry concentration is expected to further increase. Long-term preferential policies may have led some companies to become accustomed to cost competition, delaying technological innovation and the pace of high-end development. The cancellation of export tax rebates will force companies to shift from pursuing scale expansion to pursuing technological premiums and brand value, driving the industry towards high efficiency, high reliability, and intelligent upgrading. Companies with vertically integrated layouts, core technologies, brand reputation, and global operational capabilities will absorb cost pressures through technological dividends, while companies lacking core competitiveness will be eliminated or merged, further increasing industry concentration.

Thirdly, by directly raising companies' overseas sales costs, the inherent incentive for them to engage in low-price sales regardless of profit will be weakened. The motivation forces enterprises to shift from "price wars" to "value wars." This provides strong support for industry self-regulation. Self-regulation guides enterprises to compete rationally and maintain reasonable profits, while the cancellation of tax rebates financially reduces the space for vicious price competition in exports, effectively preventing the excessive transfer of domestic technological innovation achievements and industrial profits to overseas markets through low-price exports, and helping to retain high-quality production capacity and profits domestically.

21st Century Business Herald: Recently, five departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Carrying Out the Construction of Zero-Carbon Factories." How do you view the impact of this policy on the photovoltaic industry in 2026 and even during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period? How will the association promote its implementation?

Liu Yiyang: The issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on the Construction of Zero-Carbon Factories" marks a new stage in my country's manufacturing industry's green transformation, moving from "energy conservation and emission reduction" to "systematic carbon reduction and near-zero emissions." For the photovoltaic industry, this policy will have multiple positive impacts during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period.

First, the demand-side pull effect is significant. The construction of zero-carbon factories will accelerate distributed photovoltaics, integrated generation, grid, load, and storage, and green electricity substitution applications. As the most mature and economical zero-carbon energy source, photovoltaics will play a significant role in industrial… The photovoltaic industry will see wider application in industrial parks and manufacturing settings, forming stable medium- to long-term market demand. Secondly, supply-side pressure will drive industry upgrades. The "Opinions" emphasize full-process carbon reduction and carbon accounting, which will prompt photovoltaic companies to accelerate low-carbon manufacturing, green electricity use, and process optimization, driving the elimination of high-energy-consuming and low-efficiency production capacity. Industry concentration and technological barriers are expected to further increase. Thirdly, it will enhance international competitiveness. As global carbon regulations become stricter, zero-carbon factories and low-carbon products will become "passports to overseas markets," helping my country's photovoltaic industry consolidate its first-mover advantage in the international market.

For the photovoltaic industry, the "Opinions" are both a "demand accelerator" and a "catalyst for industrial upgrading." During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, it will promote the transformation of photovoltaics from a clean energy supplier to a core pillar of industrial zero-carbon system solutions.

We also plan to carry out related work to promote the implementation of this policy. First, we will improve the standard system, leading the organization of the formulation of the "1+N" standard for zero-carbon factories in the photovoltaic field and issuing special technical specifications for application; second, we will create benchmark demonstrations, selecting excellent cases of photovoltaic + zero-carbon factories and promoting the implementation experience of distributed photovoltaics and photovoltaic-energy storage integration; third… The first step is to build a supply and demand matching platform, linking photovoltaic (PV) companies with industrial enterprises to promote project cooperation in direct green electricity supply and industrial microgrid construction; the second step is to empower the industry, organize policy interpretation, guide PV companies to participate in the selection of zero-carbon factories, collect industry demands and report them to the competent authorities, optimize supporting policies for PV applications, and help PV and industrial zero-carbon transformation deeply integrate.

21st Century Business Herald: Some voices in the market say that the future trend of PV product applications is to expand from conventional scenarios to diversified scenarios such as space. From the perspective of application scenarios, where do you think the focus of expanding PV application scenarios should be during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period? How will the association promote the standardization and scaling up of scenario implementation?

Liu Yiyang: Recently, the concept of space PV and so on has indeed become very popular. But no matter how the technology evolves, to truly achieve implementation, one prerequisite is indispensable—mature, replicable, and efficient manufacturing capabilities and a long-term reliability verification system.

Currently, space PV technology is still in the early stages of exploration and verification, and it is too early to determine a clear technological direction. From the perspective of practical application, gallium arsenide (GaAs) cells, with their high conversion efficiency and excellent radiation resistance, remain the current… While commercial spaceflight and space station technologies are the mainstream choice, their high cost is due to long-term on-orbit validation and high reliability. In contrast, the heterojunction (HJT) perovskite technology, currently favored by the capital market, is largely based on the "cost reduction logic" proposed by individual financial institutions. Actual products are still in the laboratory or early verification stages, far from large-scale commercialization. It's clear that the pursuit of new technologies currently remains largely confined to research reports and capital operations.

From an application perspective, I believe ground-based applications remain the cornerstone, continuously expanding towards more complex and integrated directions. I think the future focus of photovoltaic application expansion should be more on special environments such as plateaus, islands, and deserts, which require photovoltaic products with higher reliability and adaptability. In integrated scenarios, multi-functional systems combining "photovoltaics + energy storage + hydrogen energy" will become the standard configuration for addressing the volatility of renewable energy.

However, if commercial spaceflight capacity achieves significant breakthroughs and the cost of orbital insertion further decreases, China's photovoltaic industry chain will usher in tremendous opportunities. Although this topic is currently in a hype phase, this direction is indeed worth paying attention to in the long run.

(Article source: 21st Century Business Herald, Perovskite Factory)