A 400 billion yuan infrastructure project is coming! Will the construction machinery industry see a "certain" recovery?

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) recently officially announced the approval of a cluster of major projects with a total investment exceeding 400 billion yuan, covering four core areas: transportation, energy, water conservancy, and science and technology. This is another significant measure to stabilize investment and strengthen infrastructure construction, following the 295 billion yuan "two major" projects approved in advance for 2026.

As an industry deeply tied to infrastructure investment intensity, this large-scale opening order undoubtedly injects a strong boost into the construction machinery industry. The market's focus is now on whether this policy impetus can translate into actual demand and whether the industry's long-awaited "springtime" will arrive as expected.

The policy is substantial, and the investment list is clear. The approved project cluster is guided by the core principle of "serving major national strategies and addressing shortcomings in the field." The projects in the four areas each have their own focus and work synergistically to build a modern infrastructure support network covering transportation, science and technology, energy, and water conservancy.

1. Transportation Sector:

"Air-Rail Linkage" Strategic Corridor (Total Investment: Approximately RMB 254 billion)

Guangzhou New Airport Project (RMB 200 billion): Construction of 4 runways and 3 terminals, with an estimated annual passenger throughput of 30 million. The project will directly stimulate demand for sand and gravel aggregates in the Pearl River Delta region, mainly for high-strength concrete for airport runways, terminal foundations, and supporting road construction.

Zhanjiang-Haikou Cross-Sea Ferry Project (RMB 54 billion): As a key project of the Zhanjiang-Haikou High-Speed ​​Railway, a 23-kilometer cross-sea channel needs to be constructed.

2. Science and Technology Sector:

National Laboratories Strengthen Innovation Foundation (Total Investment: Approximately RMB 100 billion)

Huairou Laboratory (RMB 60 billion): Focusing on tackling "bottleneck" areas such as quantum materials and catalysis science.

Yazhou Bay Laboratory (RMB 40 billion): Primarily focusing on seed industry innovation and tropical agriculture research, addressing core needs for food security, and conducting key technology research such as the cultivation of high-yield, high-quality, stress-resistant, and stable-yield crop varieties.

3. Energy Sector: Green Transformation Leads Industrial Upgrading (Total Investment: Approximately RMB 44.6 billion)
   Zhejiang UHV Ring Network (RMB 29.3 billion): Construction of a 1000kV UHV line requires the support of more than 500 iron tower foundations.
   Sichuan Danba Hydropower Station (RMB 15.3 billion): As a demonstration project for private capital participation, it will construct an installed capacity of 1.15 million kilowatts.
4. Water Conservancy Sector: Strengthening the "Lifeline" of Water Security (Total Investment: Approximately RMB 24.9 billion)
   Liaodong Peninsula Water Resources Allocation Project (RMB 20.7 billion): Construction period of 6 years, it will achieve "water diversion from the ocean to the river" through a 286-kilometer water transmission line (including 103 kilometers of tunnels).
   Lijiang Nanguaping Reservoir (RMB 4.2 billion): A large (2) type reservoir with a total storage capacity of 118 million cubic meters and an annual water supply of 76.6 million cubic meters.

How much work will be leveraged by the RMB 100 billion in funding? According to the approved information, transportation projects account for half of the investment, reaching approximately 254 billion yuan. In terms of regional development, these projects cover multiple regions, including the eastern coastal areas, the southwestern inland areas, and the old industrial bases of the northeast.

Meanwhile, airport, reservoir, and power grid projects generally have long construction cycles and are expected to be gradually completed and generate tangible work during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. According to the plan, the Zhanjiang-Haikou project, Danba Hydropower Station, and Nanguaping Reservoir will commence construction in the first half of 2026; the main structures of the Zhejiang UHV ring network and two major laboratories will be completed between 2026 and 2028; and the Guangzhou New Airport and the Zhanjiang-Haikou High-Speed ​​Railway are expected to be fully completed and operational during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

This concentrated approval of 400 billion yuan worth of projects undoubtedly injects strong policy certainty into the construction machinery industry. However, whether the policy can translate into market enthusiasm depends crucially on the subsequent availability of funds and the speed of project commencement and construction progress.

Over the past year, from the top-level deployment of "two major" construction projects to the continuous issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and the intensive release of lists of major projects across the country, the policy-driven efforts to promote infrastructure investment are undeniable. However, the "perceived temperature" of the construction machinery market has not fully kept pace. The recovery in sales data has not translated into a positive response on the construction front, and the operating hours of equipment, reflecting actual construction activity, remain weak. Data shows that in 2025, the average working hours of major construction machinery products will be 926 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 6.15%; the operating rate will be 55.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.77 percentage points.

Therefore, whether the "warm spring" anticipated by the industry can arrive as scheduled depends not only on the launch of projects, but also on the subsequent availability of funds and the pace of project commencement. These signals still need to be verified one by one. But what is certain is that a new round of major projects has begun, providing solid top-level support for the industry's recovery.