Industrial economic situation in my country major lndustrial provinces in 2025 and outlook for 2026

Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Anhui, Hebei, Sichuan, Henan, and Hubei provinces consistently rank among the top ten in China's total industrial output, accounting for approximately two-thirds of the national total. They are key forces supporting my country's industrial economic development and are truly deserving of the title of major industrial provinces. Since 2025, these major industrial provinces have thoroughly implemented the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, vigorously promoting the advancement, intelligent upgrading, and green transformation of manufacturing. They have solidified the foundation of the national industrial economy through their own stable development and activated new momentum for industrial upgrading through transformation and breakthroughs, making significant contributions to promoting high-quality development of the national industrial economy.

I. The Operational Trend of Industrial Economy in Major Industrial Provinces in 2025

First, the overall trend is stable with progress. Major industrial provinces are an important force supporting the stable growth of my country's industrial economy. In terms of added value, from January to October, the average year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in the ten major industrial provinces reached 6.5%, significantly higher than the national average of 4.9%. Anhui, Henan, Hebei, Shandong, and Zhejiang provinces performed particularly well, with their industrial added value growth rates all exceeding 7%, demonstrating a high-speed growth trend. In terms of revenue, from January to September, the average year-on-year growth rate of operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size in the ten major industrial provinces was 2.9%, also higher than the national overall growth rate of 2.4%. Except for Guangdong and Hebei, the revenue growth rates of the other eight provinces all outpaced the national average, demonstrating strong resilience. In terms of profitability, from January to September, the average year-on-year growth rate of total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in the ten major industrial provinces reached 11.2%, significantly exceeding the national growth rate of 3.2%. Hebei and Hubei provinces performed exceptionally well, with their total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by over 20% year-on-year, providing strong support for the improvement of national industrial economic efficiency.

Secondly, emerging driving forces remain strong. High-end development, intelligentization, and green development have become important drivers for the stable growth of the industrial economy in major industrial provinces. In the high-end manufacturing sector, from January to October, the added value of high-tech manufacturing enterprises above designated size in Fujian and Anhui provinces increased by 14.1% and 28.8% year-on-year, respectively, exceeding the growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size in the provinces by 8.4 and 19.7 percentage points, respectively. In Hebei province, the added value of high-tech industries above designated size increased by 10.4% year-on-year, accounting for 24.7% of the total added value of industrial enterprises above designated size, with the proportion of high-end industries continuing to rise. In the intelligent equipment sector, from January to October, Guangdong province's robotics and drone industry maintained rapid development, with the output of civilian drones, industrial robots, and servers increasing by 41.1%, 33.1%, and 33.1% year-on-year, respectively. In Anhui, Sichuan, and Shandong provinces, the output of industrial robots increased by 49.1%, 46.8%, and 38.7% year-on-year, respectively, demonstrating significant achievements in the large-scale development of the intelligent equipment industry. In the green and low-carbon sector, from January to October, Guangdong Province saw robust production and sales of clean energy-related products. The output of solar cells, wind turbines, and new energy vehicles increased by 64.2%, 55.0%, and 27.0% year-on-year, respectively. Meanwhile, Shandong and Sichuan provinces saw lithium-ion battery production increase by 68% and 55.9% year-on-year, respectively. The green and low-carbon industry has become a significant engine for industrial economic growth.

Thirdly, exports have played a significant role in driving growth. In recent years, facing a complex and volatile international economic and trade environment, my country's foreign trade has maintained a good development trend of stable quantity and quality, with its global export market share remaining basically stable. This is inseparable from the strong support of major industrial provinces. Since 2025, the export trade of major industrial provinces has shown the dual characteristics of "strong resilience and structural upgrading," injecting important momentum into the stable growth of national foreign trade. On the one hand, export resilience continues to be evident. As the main force in my country's foreign trade development, major industrial provinces, relying on their strong innovation capabilities and complete supply systems, have relatively strong export growth momentum. From January to October, the average year-on-year growth rate of exports from the top ten industrial provinces, denominated in RMB, reached 8.7%, significantly higher than the national average of 6.2%. Hubei, Henan, and Anhui provinces all saw export growth exceeding 10% year-on-year, demonstrating strong export competitiveness. On the other hand, significant progress has been made in optimizing the foreign trade structure. These major industrial provinces have proactively adapted to the international market's trends towards high-end, green, and intelligent development, continuously cultivating new drivers for export products and promoting a high-quality transformation of the foreign trade structure. For example, from January to October, Zhejiang Province exported 1.63 trillion yuan worth of electromechanical products, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%. Among these, exports of the "new three items"—new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products—reached 107.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, becoming a key engine of export growth. Simultaneously, these major industrial provinces actively expanded into emerging markets, continuously optimizing their export destinations. From January to October, Anhui and Shandong provinces saw their imports and exports to countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative increase by 16% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively, accounting for 54.1% and 64.2% of their total foreign trade, respectively, indicating a continued expansion of cooperation opportunities in emerging markets.

II. Prominent Bottlenecks in the Operation of Industrial Economy in Major Industrial Provinces The growth rate of manufacturing investment has slowed down. Since 2025, affected by multiple factors such as the diminishing marginal effect of policy incentives, insufficient domestic market demand, and increased uncertainty in external demand, the growth momentum of manufacturing investment in major industrial provinces has weakened. Data shows that from January to September, manufacturing investment in provinces such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Anhui experienced negative growth, declining by 15.3%, 4.5%, and 5.2% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting certain downward pressure on regional manufacturing investment. The causes of this phenomenon are complex and multifaceted: on the one hand, the weak global economic recovery and increased uncertainty in the international trade environment have led to more cautious market expectations among enterprises and more prudent investment decisions, especially in provinces with a high dependence on foreign trade. Taking Guangdong Province as an example, its high-tech manufacturing exports rank among the top in the country. However, it is significantly affected by external market fluctuations. From January to September, investment in high-tech manufacturing decreased by 15.7% year-on-year, with sub-sectors such as information chemical manufacturing (-95.6%), medical equipment and instrumentation manufacturing (-16.1%), electronic and communication equipment manufacturing (-18.6%), and aerospace and equipment manufacturing (-18.6%) all experiencing investment declines exceeding 15%. Jiangsu Province's foreign trade-related industries also faced pressure, with significant declines in investment in textiles and apparel (-17.6%), leather, fur, feathers and related products and footwear manufacturing (-25.2%), and paper and paper products manufacturing (-22%). On the other hand, the decline in investment in traditional industries such as building materials, steel, and chemicals is a necessary stage of adjustment during the process of industrial restructuring and upgrading.

The domestic and international dual circulation strategy needs to be continuously smoothed out. The dual pressures of a sluggish domestic consumer market and increased uncertainty in export demand have constrained the smooth circulation of the industrial economy in major industrial provinces, mainly in three aspects: First, the consumption engine role of leading industrial provinces has not been fully realized. Guangdong and Jiangsu, as leading industrial provinces, have experienced relatively slow consumption growth. From January to October, the year-on-year growth rates of total retail sales of consumer goods were only 2.7% and 4% respectively, both lower than the national average, indicating that consumption has not fully played its role in driving the industrial economy. Second, the decline in exports from major industrial provinces to the US is widening. From January to October, exports from major industrial provinces to the US faced significant downward pressure. Guangdong's exports to the US, denominated in RMB, decreased by 16.4% year-on-year, with the decline in September alone reaching 32.1%. Jiangsu and Shandong's exports to the US, denominated in RMB, decreased by 22.4% and 23.7% year-on-year respectively, both exceeding 20%. The decline in exports to the US has become a significant factor affecting the international circulation of these major industrial provinces. Third, industrial product prices remain in negative territory. The sluggish industrial economic cycle manifests at the price level as a sustained negative growth in industrial product prices. From January to October, the average Producer Price Index (PPI) of the ten major industrial provinces was -2.7%, basically in line with the national average. Among them, the PPI declines in Anhui, Henan, and Hebei provinces all exceeded 3%, indicating that downward price pressure is constraining the profit margins and production intentions of industrial enterprises.

III. Outlook for Manufacturing in Major Industrial Provinces in 2026

Since 2025, with the exception of a few provinces, the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in most major industrial provinces has been higher than the national average, providing solid support for the stable growth of the national industrial economy. Looking ahead to 2026, the industrial economic development of major industrial provinces faces both opportunities and challenges. Overall, favorable conditions for development throughout the year will outweigh constraints, and the industrial economy is expected to maintain a stable operating trend, with overall development quality and efficiency expected to be better than the national average.

From the perspective of favorable development factors, firstly, precise macroeconomic policies have solidified the foundation for development. The use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support the construction of "new infrastructure" and "major projects" provides strong support for the industrial economy. A flexible and appropriate monetary policy helps maintain reasonably ample market liquidity, effectively reduces corporate financing costs, and further enhances the development confidence of major industrial provinces and stabilizes market expectations. Secondly, targeted industry policies strengthen their guiding effect. New rounds of growth-stabilizing action plans for ten key industries, including non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, have been implemented, providing systematic policy support for industrial upgrading and technological breakthroughs in specific sectors of major industrial provinces, helping them fully leverage their scale advantages and leading role. Thirdly, the accelerated implementation of capacity control in key industries improves corporate profitability. With the gradual effectiveness of comprehensive rectification of "involutionary" competition, coupled with the steady progress of demand-side measures such as benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, the supply and demand structure continues to optimize, and the profitability of industrial enterprises in major industrial provinces is expected to steadily recover. Fourthly, high-end, intelligent, and green transformation activates new drivers of industrial growth. Against the backdrop of continued market demand, high-end, intelligent, and green industries in major industrial provinces, leveraging their technological advantages and policy dividends, will continue to maintain rapid growth, becoming an important force supporting the high-quality development of the industrial economy.

From the perspective of factors constraining development, firstly, the adjustment of the global economic and trade landscape and the restructuring of industrial chains bring external pressure. In recent years, the global industrial and supply chains have been rapidly restructured, with some manufacturing capacity shifting to lower-cost regions such as Southeast Asia, posing a challenge to the industrial competitiveness of major industrial provinces. Taking textiles and apparel as an example, in the first three quarters of 2025, Guangdong's textile and apparel exports amounted to RMB 178.7 billion (approximately USD 25 billion), a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%, while Vietnam's textile and apparel exports totaled USD 34.8 billion during the same period, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. As the global labor-intensive industrial chain is rapidly restructured, the development of related industries in major industrial provinces will face significant pressure. Secondly, the dual pressures of internal and external factors constrain the growth momentum of manufacturing investment. 2026, as the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, is expected to maintain stable overall manufacturing investment in major industrial provinces under the coordinated efforts of various policies. However, influenced by factors such as rising external uncertainties and weak recovery in the domestic consumer market, enterprises are becoming more cautious in their investment decisions. Manufacturing investment in major industrial provinces, especially Guangdong and Jiangsu, may show a slow growth trend, and growth momentum needs further activation.

IV. Policy Recommendations

(I) Taking Multiple Measures to Stabilize Export Growth

First, establish a dynamic and precise export incentive and adjustment mechanism. Optimize the export tax rebate management model and build a dynamic adjustment system that is compatible with the direction of industrial upgrading. For products with low technology intensity and low added value, gradually reduce or cancel export tax rebate policies to guide enterprises in major industrial provinces to accelerate their transformation towards the high end of the value chain and enhance the competitiveness of export products through tax leverage.
Second, build a diversified overseas market expansion system. Support major industrial provinces in establishing special funds for market development, focusing on subsidizing enterprises to participate in international exhibitions, conduct overseas market research, and establish overseas warehousing facilities, thereby deeply expanding into countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, RCEP member countries, and other emerging markets; expand the coverage of export credit insurance in emerging markets, and develop customized insurance products to address geopolitical and commercial cooperation risks in specific countries, reducing the risks of overseas operations for enterprises.
Third, comprehensively improve the efficiency of cross-border trade integrated services. Support major industrial provinces in vigorously developing new forms and models of foreign trade such as cross-border e-commerce and market procurement trade, and cultivate new engines for export growth; establish provincial-level comprehensive foreign trade service platforms to integrate various resources such as customs supervision, tax collection and management, foreign exchange management, financial services, and logistics and transportation, providing one-stop solutions for small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises; encourage financial institutions to develop supply chain finance products such as unsecured loans and accounts receivable financing based on transaction data, effectively alleviating the difficulties and high costs of financing for small and medium-sized enterprises, and helping foreign trade enterprises reduce costs and increase efficiency.

(II) Targeted Policies to Stabilize Manufacturing Investment
First, optimize the structure and management mechanism of special-purpose bonds. Appropriately increase the allocation of special-purpose bonds to major industrial provinces, focusing on key areas such as the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G base stations, industrial internet, and artificial intelligence computing centers, as well as the upgrading of supporting infrastructure for advanced manufacturing clusters, to strengthen the role of investment support. Promote the establishment of a "negative list" system for special-purpose bond investment in major industrial provinces, strictly restrict the inflow of funds into backward and inefficient industries, and ensure that funds are accurately invested in key areas such as the cultivation of emerging industries and the enhancement of core competitiveness. Second, establish provincial-level manufacturing parent funds to leverage social capital. Support major industrial provinces in establishing provincial-level manufacturing transformation and upgrading parent funds, setting up specialized sub-funds through market-oriented operation models, leveraging the multiplier effect of fiscal funds, and attracting various social capital to participate in manufacturing investment. The funds will focus on cultivating early-stage hard-tech enterprises and major technological transformation projects in traditional industries, injecting long-term capital into the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry. Third, innovate the "financial leasing + technological upgrading subsidy" support model. Encourage major industrial provinces to promote the "financial leasing + technological upgrading subsidy" linkage mechanism, where government-supported financial leasing institutions provide equipment leasing services to enterprises. Enterprises pay rent in installments as agreed. After the enterprise completes the technological transformation and achieves the predetermined performance, the government will directly allocate the technological upgrading subsidy funds to the enterprise to offset part of the rental costs, thereby effectively solving the problem of SMEs being "unwilling to invest, afraid to invest, and lacking funds" for equipment upgrades.

(III) Expanding Industrial Consumer Goods Consumption Through Multi-Dimensional Efforts
First, promote the normalization and precision of consumption stimulus policies. Further improve the "trade-in" policy, clarify unified subsidy standards and standardized processing procedures, and provide stable policy expectations for business entities. Support major industrial provinces in optimizing the distribution model of consumer vouchers, utilizing big data technology to accurately identify consumer demand, prioritizing key groups such as low- and middle-income groups, and specifically leveraging the consumption potential of green and low-carbon products and smart terminals to maximize policy benefits. Second, cultivate new consumption scenarios integrating "manufacturing + services." Promote a shift in policy support focus from single-commodity subsidies to the cultivation of new business formats and scenarios in major industrial provinces. Develop immersive consumption platforms based on regional industrial characteristics, deepen the integration of culture, commerce, tourism, and manufacturing, and leverage resources such as industrial heritage sites and distinctive factory areas to create industrial tourism and experiential consumption spaces, expanding new boundaries for consumption growth. Third, solidify the foundation of residents' consumption capacity and confidence. Support major industrial provinces in improving income distribution adjustment mechanisms, promoting the reasonable transmission of corporate profits to employee compensation, and improving a social security system covering all citizens and coordinating urban and rural areas. Enhance residents' consumption confidence and fundamentally release consumption potential through measures such as stabilizing employment and improving security levels.

(IV) Systematically Promote the Transformation and Upgrading of Manufacturing
First, construct an industrial collaborative transformation system led by leading chain enterprises. Support major industrial provinces to focus on key and core links in the industrial chain, and prioritize policy resources for leading enterprises in the chain. Through special funds and tax incentives, guide leading enterprises to open up industrial internet platform resources and share digital transformation solutions, thereby driving the development of upstream and downstream SMEs.

First, deeply participate in the collaborative transformation of the industrial chain, forming a transformation pattern of "leading enterprises driving and chain-linked development." Second, create an intelligent upgrading ecosystem of "industrial brain + future factory." Encourage major industrial provinces to build "industrial brains" around key industrial clusters, integrating data resources to provide enterprises with intelligent services such as energy consumption monitoring, supply chain collaboration, and market demand forecasting. Establish a tiered cultivation mechanism of "digital workshop - intelligent factory - future factory," formulate differentiated transformation paths based on the actual development of enterprises, guide enterprises to promote intelligent upgrading in stages and levels, and improve the overall intelligent level of the industry. Third, improve the long-term support mechanism for green and low-carbon transformation. Support major industrial provinces in exploring the implementation of stricter carbon emission standards in high-energy-consuming industries such as steel, chemicals, and building materials, accelerate the construction of regional carbon emission trading markets, and use market-based means to force enterprises to reduce emissions and carbon emissions. Promote the innovative development of green finance, expand the application scope of financial instruments such as green credit and green bonds, optimize the financing environment for green projects, reduce the cost of green transformation for enterprises, and help the manufacturing industry achieve green and low-carbon development.

(Shen Li: The author is an associate research fellow at the Economic Forecasting Department of the State Information Center)

(Excerpted from China Economic and Trade Guide, January 2026)